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Noori, S., A. Hofmann, D. Rödder, M. Husemann, and H. Rajaei. 2024. A window to the future: effects of climate change on the distribution patterns of Iranian Zygaenidae and their host plants. Biodiversity and Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-023-02760-2

Climate change has been suggested as an important human-induced driver for the ongoing sixth mass extinction. As a common response to climate change, and particularly global warming, species move toward higher latitudes or shift uphill. Furthermore, rapid climate change impacts the biotic interactions of species, particularly in the case of Zygaenid moths which exhibit high specialization in both habitat and host plant preferences. Iranian Zygaenidae are relatively well-known and represent a unique fauna with a high endemism rate (46%) in the whole Palearctic; as such they are a good model group to study the impact of climate change on future distributions. In this study, we used species distribution models (SDMs) and ensembles of small models (ESMs) to investigate the impact of climate change on the future distribution of endemic and non-endemic species of zygaenids, as well as their larval host plants. Three different climate scenarios were applied to forecast the probable responses of the species to different climate change intensities. Our results suggest that the central and southern parts of the country will be impacted profoundly by climate change compared to the northern regions. Beyond this, most endemic species will experience an altitudinal shift from their current range, while non-endemic species may move towards higher latitudes. Considering that the regions with higher diversity of zygaenids are limited to mountainous areas, mainly within the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot, the identification of their local high diversity regions for conservation practices has a high priority.

Weiss, R. M., F. Zanetti, B. Alberghini, D. Puttick, M. A. Vankosky, A. Monti, and C. Eynck. 2024. Bioclimatic analysis of potential worldwide production of spring‐type camelina [Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz] seeded in the spring. GCB Bioenergy 16. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.13126

Camelina [Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz] is a Brassicaceae oilseed that is gaining interest worldwide as low‐maintenance crop for diverse biobased applications. One of the most important factors determining its productivity is climate. We conducted a bioclimate analysis in order to analyze the relationship between climatic factors and the productivity of spring‐type camelina seeded in the spring, and to identify regions of the world with potential for camelina in this scenario. Using the modelling tool CLIMEX, a bioclimatic model was developed for spring‐seeded spring‐type camelina to match distribution, reported seed yields and phenology records in North America. Distribution, yield, and phenology data from outside of North America were used as independent datasets for model validation and demonstrated that model projections agreed with published distribution records, reported spring‐seeded camelina yields, and closely predicted crop phenology in Europe, South America, and Asia. Sensitivity analysis, used to quantify the response of camelina to changes in precipitation and temperature, indicated that crop performance was more sensitive to moisture than temperature index parameters, suggesting that the yield potential of spring‐seeded camelina may be more strongly impacted by water‐limited conditions than by high temperatures. Incremental climate scenarios also revealed that spring‐seeded camelina production will exhibit yield shifts at the continental scale as temperature and precipitation deviate from current conditions. Yield data were compared with indices of climatic suitability to provide estimates of potential worldwide camelina productivity. This information was used to identify new areas where spring‐seeded camelina could be grown and areas that may permit expanded production, including eastern Europe, China, eastern Russia, Australia and New Zealand. Our model is the first to have taken a systematic approach to determine suitable regions for potential worldwide production of spring‐seeded camelina.

Qin, F., T. Xue, X. Zhang, X. Yang, J. Yu, S. R. Gadagkar, and S. Yu. 2023. Past climate cooling and orogenesis of the Hengduan Mountains have influenced the evolution of Impatiens sect. Impatiens (Balsaminaceae) in the Northern Hemisphere. BMC Plant Biology 23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12870-023-04625-w

Background Impatiens sect. Impatiens is distributed across the Northern Hemisphere and has diversified considerably, particularly within the Hengduan Mountains (HDM) in southwest China. Yet, the infra-sectional phylogenetic relationships are not well resolved, largely due to limited taxon sampling and an insufficient number of molecular markers. The evolutionary history of its diversification is also poorly understood. In this study, plastome data and the most complete sampling to date were used to reconstruct a robust phylogenetic framework for this section. The phylogeny was then used to investigate its biogeographical history and diversification patterns, specifically with the aim of understanding the role played by the HDM and past climatic changes in its diversification. Results A stable phylogeny was reconstructed that strongly supported both the monophyly of the section and its division into seven major clades (Clades I-VII). Molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction suggest that sect. Impatiens originated in the HDM and Southeast China around 11.76 Ma, after which different lineages dispersed to Northwest China, temperate Eurasia, and North America, mainly during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. An intercontinental dispersal event from East Asia to western North America may have occurred via the Bering Land Bridge or Aleutian Islands. The diversification rate was high during its early history, especially with the HDM, but gradually decreased over time both within and outside the HDM. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the distribution pattern of species richness was strongly associated with elevation range, elevation, and mean annual temperature. Finally, ancestral niche analysis indicated that sect. Impatiens originated in a relatively cool, middle-elevation area. Conclusions We inferred the evolutionary history of sect. Impatiens based on a solid phylogenetic framework. The HDM was the primary source or pump of its diversity in the Northern Hemisphere. Orogeny and climate change may have also shaped its diversification rates, as a steady decrease in the diversification rate coincided with the uplift of the HDM and climate cooling. These findings provide insights into the distribution pattern of sect. Impatiens and other plants in the Northern Hemisphere.

Metreveli, V., H. Kreft, I. Akobia, Z. Janiashvili, Z. Nonashvili, L. Dzadzamia, Z. Javakhishvili, and A. Gavashelishvili. 2023. Potential Distribution and Suitable Habitat for Chestnut (Castanea sativa). Forests 14: 2076. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14102076

Chestnut, Castanea sativa Miller (Fagales: Fagaceae), is an ecologically and economically important tree species of the forest ecosystem in Southern Europe, North-Western Europe, Western Asia, North Africa, and the Caucasus. The distributional range of chestnut in Europe has been highly modified by humans since ancient times. Biotic and abiotic factors have dramatically changed its distribution. Historic anthropogenic range expansion makes it difficult to identify habitat requirements for natural stands of chestnut. In the Caucasus, natural stands of chestnut survived in glacial forest refugia and landscapes that have been difficult for humans to colonize. To identify the species reliable habitat requirements, we estimated the relationship between climatic variables and 620 occurrence locations of natural chestnut stands from the Caucasus and validated the model using GBIF data from outside the Caucasus. We found that our best model is reasonably accurate and the data from the Caucasus characterize chestnut stands throughout the species range well.

Rodríguez-Merino, A. 2023. Identifying and Managing Areas under Threat in the Iberian Peninsula: An Invasion Risk Atlas for Non-Native Aquatic Plant Species as a Potential Tool. Plants 12: 3069. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants12173069

Predicting the likelihood that non-native species will be introduced into new areas remains one of conservation’s greatest challenges and, consequently, it is necessary to adopt adequate management measures to mitigate the effects of future biological invasions. At present, not much information is available on the areas in which non-native aquatic plant species could establish themselves in the Iberian Peninsula. Species distribution models were used to predict the potential invasion risk of (1) non-native aquatic plant species already established in the peninsula (32 species) and (2) those with the potential to invade the peninsula (40 species). The results revealed that the Iberian Peninsula contains a number of areas capable of hosting non-native aquatic plant species. Areas under anthropogenic pressure are at the greatest risk of invasion, and the variable most related to invasion risk is temperature. The results of this work were used to create the Invasion Risk Atlas for Alien Aquatic Plants in the Iberian Peninsula, a novel online resource that provides information about the potential distribution of non-native aquatic plant species. The atlas and this article are intended to serve as reference tools for the development of public policies, management regimes, and control strategies aimed at the prevention, mitigation, and eradication of non-native aquatic plant species.

Tippery, N. P., N. E. Harms, M. F. Purcell, S. H. Hong, P. Häfliger, K. Killoy, A. L. Wolfe, and R. A. Thum. 2023. Assessing the genetic diversity of Nymphoides peltata in the native and adventive range using microsatellite markers. Biological Invasions. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-023-03151-y

Nymphoides peltata (yellow floating-heart), native to Eurasia, is an invasive plant in the USA, where it grows in relatively isolated but widespread populations. The species is capable of sexual reproduction by seed and asexual reproduction through fragmentation. Although N. peltata is recognized as a noxious weed, little is known about its geographic region of origin or its dispersal mechanisms and relative amount of genetic variation in its adventive range. We conducted a genetic analysis of N. peltata by studying 68 localities across the native range and 47 localities in the adventive range, using microsatellite markers to determine genetic variability within and among populations, and to infer regions in the native range from which invasive plants originated. A large number of sites in the USA were genetically identical to one another, and there were two predominant multilocus allele phenotypes that were distributed in the northern and southern latitudes, respectively. Additional USA sites were similar to one of the predominant genetic profiles, with greater genetic diversity in southern populations. The genetically identical sites are consistent with asexual spread, potentially via anthropogenic mechanisms. Plants across the USA range were observed to produce viable seeds, and some genetic variation could be explained by sexual reproduction. All USA plants were more similar to plants in Europe than they were to plants in Asia, indicating that the plants likely were introduced originally from Europe. The existence of two genetic clusters and their similarity to plants in different parts of Europe constitute evidence for at least two N. peltata introductions into the USA.

Borges, C. E., R. Von dos Santos Veloso, C. A. da Conceição, D. S. Mendes, N. Y. Ramirez-Cabral, F. Shabani, M. Shafapourtehrany, et al. 2023. Forecasting Brassica napus production under climate change with a mechanistic species distribution model. Scientific Reports 13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38910-3

Brassica napus , a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040–2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus , with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus , impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States.

Benson, C. W., M. R. Sheltra, P. J. Maughan, E. N. Jellen, M. D. Robbins, B. S. Bushman, E. L. Patterson, et al. 2023. Homoeologous evolution of the allotetraploid genome of Poa annua L. BMC Genomics 24. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12864-023-09456-5

Background Poa annua (annual bluegrass) is an allotetraploid turfgrass, an agronomically significant weed, and one of the most widely dispersed plant species on earth. Here, we report the chromosome-scale genome assemblies of P. annua’s diploid progenitors, P. infirma and P. supina, and use multi-omic analyses spanning all three species to better understand P. annua’s evolutionary novelty. Results We find that the diploids diverged from their common ancestor 5.5 – 6.3 million years ago and hybridized to form P. annua  ≤ 50,000 years ago. The diploid genomes are similar in chromosome structure and most notably distinguished by the divergent evolutionary histories of their transposable elements, leading to a 1.7 × difference in genome size. In allotetraploid P. annua, we find biased movement of retrotransposons from the larger (A) subgenome to the smaller (B) subgenome. We show that P. annua’s B subgenome is preferentially accumulating genes and that its genes are more highly expressed. Whole-genome resequencing of several additional P. annua accessions revealed large-scale chromosomal rearrangements characterized by extensive TE-downsizing and evidence to support the Genome Balance Hypothesis. Conclusions The divergent evolutions of the diploid progenitors played a central role in conferring onto P. annua its remarkable phenotypic plasticity. We find that plant genes (guided by selection and drift) and transposable elements (mostly guided by host immunity) each respond to polyploidy in unique ways and that P. annua uses whole-genome duplication to purge highly parasitized heterochromatic sequences. The findings and genomic resources presented here will enable the development of homoeolog-specific markers for accelerated weed science and turfgrass breeding .

Clemente, K. J. E., and M. S. Thomsen. 2023. High temperature frequently increases facilitation between aquatic foundation species: a global meta‐analysis of interaction experiments between angiosperms, seaweeds, and bivalves. Journal of Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14101

Many studies have quantified ecological impacts of individual foundation species (FS). However, emerging data suggest that FS often co‐occur, potentially inhibiting or facilitating one another, thereby causing indirect, cascading effects on surrounding communities. Furthermore, global warming is accelerating, but little is known about how interactions between co‐occurring FS vary with temperature.Shallow aquatic sedimentary systems are often dominated by three types of FS: slower‐growing clonal angiosperms, faster‐growing solitary seaweeds, and shell‐forming filter‐ and deposit‐feeding bivalves. Here, we tested the impacts of one FS on another by analyzing manipulative interaction experiments from 148 papers with a global meta‐analysis.We calculated 1,942 (non‐independent) Hedges’ g effect sizes, from 11,652 extracted values over performance responses, such as abundances, growths or survival of FS, and their associated standard deviations and replication levels. Standard aggregation procedures generated 511 independent Hedges’ g that was classified into six types of reciprocal impacts between FS.We found that (i) seaweeds had consistent negative impacts on angiosperms across performance responses, organismal sizes, experimental approaches, and ecosystem types; (ii) angiosperms and bivalves generally had positive impacts on each other (e.g., positive effects of angiosperms on bivalves were consistent across organismal sizes and experimental approaches, but angiosperm effect on bivalve growth and bivalve effect on angiosperm abundance were not significant); (iii) bivalves positively affected seaweeds (particularly on growth responses); (iv) there were generally no net effects of seaweeds on bivalves (except for positive effect on growth) or angiosperms on seaweeds (except for positive effect on ‘other processes’); and (v) bivalve interactions with other FS were typically more positive at higher temperatures, but angiosperm‐seaweed interactions were not moderated by temperature.Synthesis: Despite variations in experimental and spatiotemporal conditions, the stronger positive interactions at higher temperatures suggest that facilitation, particularly involving bivalves, may become more important in a future warmer world. Importantly, addressing research gaps, such as the scarcity of FS interaction experiments from tropical and freshwater systems and for less studied species, as well as testing for density‐dependent effects, could better inform aquatic ecosystem conservation and restoration efforts and broaden our knowledge of FS interactions in the Anthropocene.

Huang, T., J. Chen, K. E. Hummer, L. A. Alice, W. Wang, Y. He, S. Yu, et al. 2023. Phylogeny of Rubus (Rosaceae): Integrating molecular and morphological evidence into an infrageneric revision. TAXON. https://doi.org/10.1002/tax.12885

Rubus (Rosaceae), one of the most complicated angiosperm genera, contains about 863 species, and is notorious for its taxonomic difficulty. The most recent (1910–1914) global taxonomic treatment of the genus was conducted by Focke, who defined 12 subgenera. Phylogenetic results over the past 25 years suggest that Focke's subdivisions of Rubus are not monophyletic, and large‐scale taxonomic revisions are necessary. Our objective was to provide a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of the genus based on an integrative evidence approach. Morphological characters, obtained from our own investigation of living plants and examination of herbarium specimens are combined with chloroplast genomic data. Our dataset comprised 196 accessions representing 145 Rubus species (including cultivars and hybrids) and all of Focke's subgenera, including 60 endemic Chinese species. Maximum likelihood analyses inferred phylogenetic relationships. Our analyses concur with previous molecular studies, but with modifications. Our data strongly support the reclassification of several subgenera within Rubus. Our molecular analyses agree with others that only R. subg. Anoplobatus forms a monophyletic group. Other subgenera are para‐ or polyphyletic. We suggest a revised subgeneric framework to accommodate monophyletic groups. Character evolution is reconstructed, and diagnostic morphological characters for different clades are identified and discussed. Based on morphological and molecular evidence, we propose a new classification system with 10 subgenera: R. subg. Anoplobatus, R. subg. Batothamnus, R. subg. Chamaerubus, R. subg. Cylactis, R. subg. Dalibarda, R. subg. Idaeobatus, R. subg. Lineati, R. subg. Malachobatus, R. subg. Melanobatus, and R. subg. Rubus. The revised infrageneric nomenclature inferred from our analyses is provided along with synonymy and type citations. Our new taxonomic backbone is the first systematic and complete global revision of Rubus since Focke's treatment. It offers new insights into deep phylogenetic relationships of Rubus and has important theoretical and practical significance for the development and utilization of these important agronomic crops.