Thomas Edward Penard

The Neotropics are a global biodiversity hotspot that has undergone dramatic land use changes over the last decades. However, a temporal perspective on the continental-wide distributions of species in this region is still missing. To unveil it, we model the entire area of occupancy of five Neotropical carnivore species at two time periods (2000–2013 and 2014–2021) using integrated species distribution models (ISDMs) in a Bayesian framework. The carnivores are the jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi), margay (Leopardus wiedii), maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), tayra (Eira barbara), and giant otter (Pteronura brasiliensis). We mapped the temporal change, the areas where gains and losses accumulated for all species (hotspots of change) and calculated the temporal species turnover and change in spatial turnover. We show that (1) most carnivore species have declined their area of occupancy (i.e., range size) in the last two decades, (2) their diversity has decreased over time, mostly in the Chaco region, and (3) that hotspots of fast species composition turnover are in Chaco, the Caatinga region, and northwest of Mexico. We discuss how these newly identified hotspots of change overlap with regions of well-known and pronounced land use transformation. These estimated patterns of overall decline are alarming, more so given that four out of the five species had been classified as not threatened by IUCN. The official global threat status of these species may need to be re-evaluated. All this would be invisible if standard forecasts, local expert knowledge, or static threat criteria, such as range size, were used. We thus provide a new approach to evaluate past species range dynamics based on multiple lines of evidence, which can be employed over more species in the future, particularly in under-sampled regions.

Here, we explored how variations in the allopatric speciation scenario, specifically ecological vs. vicariant allopatry, relate to climatic niche change in sister species. We selected two sister species pairs of North American hummingbirds (Calypte anna, C. costae, Basilinna leucotis, B. xantusii) that diverged 2.5 and 3.6 million years ago, under ecological (arid climate tendency during Pliocene) and vicariant (Baja California peninsula separation) allopatric processes, respectively. We constructed the climatic niche of each species using occurrence records and estimated the distance, similarity, and unique fraction of climatic niche between sister species. Calypte species showed moderate niche divergence (Euclidean distance between centroids = 1.94, Sørensen index of similarity = 0.080, unique fraction of hypervolume in C. costae = 0.57, and C. anna = 0.95). However, contrary to expectations, Basilinna species, which diverged under a vicariant scenario, displayed clear niche divergence (Euclidean distance between centroids = 3.78, Sørensen index of similarity = 0.0001, and unique fraction of hypervolume in B. xantusii = 0.98, and B. leucotis = 0.99). We explained dissimilarity in climatic niches between Basilinna species by the ecological divergence between habitats of disjunct populations, which would have also been associated with increased aridity during the Pliocene.

Context Shifts in climate and land use have dramatically reshaped ecosystems, impacting the distribution and status of wildlife populations. For many species, data gaps limit inference regarding population trends and links to environmental change. This deficiency hinders our ability to enact meaningful conservation measures to protect at risk species. Objectives We investigated historical drivers of environmental niche change for three North American weasel species (American ermine, least weasel, and long-tailed weasel) to understand their response to environmental change. Methods Using species occurrence records and corresponding environmental data, we developed species-specific environmental niche models for the contiguous United States (1938–2021). We generated annual hindcasted predictions of the species’ environmental niche, assessing changes in distribution, area, and fragmentation in response to environmental change. Results We identified a 54% decline in suitable habitat alongside high levels of fragmentation for least weasels and region-specific trends for American ermine and long-tailed weasels; declines in the West and increased suitability in the East. Climate and land use were important predictors of the environmental niche for all species. Changes in habitat amount and distribution reflected widespread land use changes over the past century while declines in southern and low-elevation areas are consistent with impacts from climatic change. Conclusions Our models uncovered land use and climatic change as potential historic drivers of population change for North American weasels and provide a basis for management recommendations and targeted survey efforts. We identified potentially at-risk populations and a need for landscape-level planning to support weasel populations amid ongoing environmental changes.

This paper presents an exploratory study on the taxonomic diversity of pre-Hispanic archaeofaunas in the South-Central Andes (SCA; western South America) from the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary to the Late-Holocene. The SCA is a complex of diverse environments and has undergone distinct climate events for the last 13,000 years, such as the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions in the Middle-Holocene. The South-Central Andean area was part of the larger Andes interaction area, which was a primary center for animal and plant domestication and the emergence of agro-pastoralist economies. Since subsistence was key to these processes, the SCA provides a relevant case study on the interactions among environment, foodways and sociocultural evolution. Taxonomic diversity was used here as a proxy for diet breadth. A total of 268 archaeofaunal assemblages were sampled from the zooarchaeological literature. Reviewed variables included the cultural chronology and spatial coordinates of the assemblages, as well as the presence and abundance of taxa at the family rank. Taxonomic diversity covered two dimensions: composition (families present in each assemblage) and structure (quantitative relationships among taxa), which was measured through richness (NTAXA), ubiquity and relative abundance (NISP based rank-order). Despite the uneven distribution of samples, the analyses revealed the following trends: (1) a moderate relationship between NTAXA and distance from coastline for most of the Holocene; (2) a potential decrease in assemblage richness for coastal ecoregions during the Late-Holocene; and (3) a generalized increase in the relative abundance of Camelidae.

How climate change alters persistence and distribution of endangered species is an urgent question in current ecological research. However, many species distribution models do not consider consumers in the context of their resources. The distribution and survival of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus), listed as a Vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List, critically depend on seagrass resources and freshwater sources for drinking. We parameterized Maxent models with Bio-ORACLE environmental layers, freshwater proximity data, and modelled seagrass distance layers, to determine manatee and seagrass distributions under future climate change scenarios. We used two plausible IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP45 and RCP26, respectively) for the year 2050. The model fits had high accuracies and predicted a marked decline in seagrass coverage (RCP26: -1.9%, RCP45: -6%), coinciding with declines in manatee ranges (RCP26: -9%, RCP45: -11.8%). We also found that over 94% of the projected manatee distribution for all scenarios fell within the seagrass distribution. The analysis showed a decline in seagrass coverage to significantly impact manatee distributions, since the distance to seagrass ecological layer contributed significantly to manatee distributions, along with distance to freshwater sources. Our findings suggest that manatees will lose substantial range due to future climate change, but the extent and direction of this change will be mediated by the degree of warming and its impact on the resources manatees depend on.

Aim Biodiversity on islands is commonly explained by a set of natural drivers such as area, isolation and habitat heterogeneity. However, constant human impact has led to considerable changes in island floras worldwide. This is reflected, among others, in increased numbers of non‐native species. Barrier islands are discrete land units, strongly influenced by humans and not displaying significant evolutionary dynamics. This makes them highly suitable for studying contemporary patterns of species richness and underlying processes. We aim to disentangle the effects of established natural and anthropogenic drivers on native and non‐native plant species richness at the example of 31 European barrier islands.Location31 North Sea barrier islands located off the Dutch, German and Danish coast.TaxonNative and non‐native plant species (spermatophytes and ferns).MethodsIndividual relationships of natural and anthropogenic drivers with native and non‐native plant species richness are analysed with generalised linear models (GLMs). We use structural equation models (SEMs) to additionally account for interrelations between drivers.ResultsIsland area was the strongest predictor of native and non‐native plant species richness but affected richness mostly indirectly through habitat heterogeneity (non‐native species) and island inhabitants (native species). Isolation had a slight negative effect on native and non‐native plant species numbers on islands.Main ConclusionsThe richness of native and non‐native plant species on islands is associated with different drivers, that is, habitat heterogeneity and island inhabitants respectively. This might be caused by distinct underlying processes forming native and non‐native richness patterns. Area was confirmed to be the most important driver of species richness but acting primarily through other natural and anthropogenic drivers of plant species richness. We encourage considering both natural and anthropogenic drivers and their interrelatedness to explain contemporary biogeographic patterns of species richness.

Background Carnivore mammals are animals vulnerable to human interference, such as climate change and deforestation. Their distribution and persistence are affected by such impacts, mainly in tropical regions such as the Amazon. Due to the importance of carnivores in the maintenance and functioning of the ecosystem, they are extremely important animals for conservation. We evaluated the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of carnivores in the Amazon using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Do we seek to answer the following questions: (1) What is the effect of climate change on the distribution of carnivores in the Amazon? (2) Will carnivore species lose or gain representation within the Protected Areas (PAs) of the Amazon in the future? Methods We evaluated the distribution area of 16 species of carnivores mammals in the Amazon, based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the year 2070. For the construction of the SDMs we used bioclimatic and vegetation cover variables (land type). Based on these models, we calculated the area loss and climate suitability of the species, as well as the effectiveness of the protected areas inserted in the Amazon. We estimated the effectiveness of PAs on the individual persistence of carnivores in the future, for this, we used the SDMs to perform the gap analysis. Finally, we analyze the effectiveness of PAs in protecting taxonomic richness in future scenarios. Results The SDMs showed satisfactory predictive performance, with Jaccard values above 0.85 and AUC above 0.91 for all species. In the present and for the future climate scenarios, we observe a reduction of potencial distribution in both future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), where five species will be negatively affected by climate change in the RCP 4.5 future scenario and eight in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The remaining species stay stable in terms of total area. All species in the study showed a loss of climatic suitability. Some species lost almost all climatic suitability in the RCP 8.5 scenario. According to the GAP analysis, all species are protected within the PAs both in the current scenario and in both future climate scenarios. From the null models, we found that in all climate scenarios, the PAs are not efficient in protecting species richness.

Ongoing climate change has caused well‐documented displacements of species' geographic distribution to newly climatically suitable areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) are widely used to project such climate‐induced changes but typically ignore species' interspecific interactions that might facilitate or prevent its establishment in new areas. Here, we projected the change in the distribution of Juçara Palm (Euterpe edulis Mart., Arecaceae), a neotropical threatened palm, taking into consideration its ecological interactions. We run ENMs of E. edulis, plus its known seed dispersers (15 bird species) and predators (19 birds and mammals) under current and future climatic conditions. Additionally, for E. edulis, we removed deforested areas from the model. When considering only climate, climate change has a positive impact on E. edulis, with a predicted westward expansion and a modest southward contraction, with a 26% net gain in distribution by 2060. When removing deforested areas, however, climate change harms E. edulis, with a 66% predicted net distribution loss. Within the palm's distribution in this more realistic model, there is also a predicted reduction in the richness of its dispersers and predators. We conclude that the possible benefits of climate change to E. edulis' distribution are overshadowed by widespread habitat loss, and that global change is likely to disrupt some of its ecological interactions. The outcome of the interplay between the negative impact of the loss of dispersers, and the benefit of the loss of predators, is unclear, but the large contraction of E. edulis' range predicted here foresees a dim future for the species.

Advances in technology have equipped paleobiologists with new analytical tools to assess the fossil record. The functional traits of vertebrates have been used to infer paleoenvironmental conditions. In Quaternary deposits, birds are the second-most-studied group after mammals. They are considered a poor paleoambiental proxy because their high vagility and phenotypic plasticity allow them to respond more effectively to climate change. Investigating multiple groups is important, but it is not often attempted. Biogeographical and climatic niche information concerning small mammals, reptiles, and birds have been used to infer the paleoclimatic conditions present during the Late Pleistocene at San Josecito Cave (~28,000 14C years BP), Mexico. Warmer and dryer conditions are inferred with respect to the present. The use of all of the groups of small vertebrates is recommended because they represent an assemblage of species that have gone through a series of environmental filters in the past. Individually, different vertebrate groups provide different paleoclimatic information. Birds are a good proxy for inferring paleoprecipitation but not paleotemperature. Together, reptiles and small mammals are a good proxy for inferring paleoprecipitation and paleotemperature, but reptiles alone are a bad proxy, and mammals alone are a good proxy for inferring paleotemperature and precipitation. The current paleoclimatic results coupled with those of a previous vegetation structure analysis indicate the presence of non-analog paleoenvironmental conditions during the Late Pleistocene in the San Josecito Cave area. This situation would explain the presence of a disharmonious fauna and the extinction of several taxa when these conditions later disappeared and do not reappear again.

The oceans become increasingly contaminated as a result of global industrial production and consumer behaviour, and this affects wildlife in areas far removed from sources of pollution. Migratory seabirds such as storm-petrels may forage in areas with different contaminant levels throughout the annual cycle and may show a carry-over of mercury from the winter quarters to the breeding sites. In this study, we compared mercury levels among seven species of storm-petrels breeding on the Antarctic South Shetlands and subantarctic Kerguelen Islands, in temperate waters of the Chatham Islands, New Zealand, and in temperate waters of the Pacific off Mexico. We tested for differences in the level of contamination associated with breeding and inter-breeding distribution and trophic position. We collected inert body feathers and metabolically active blood samples in ten colonies, reflecting long-term (feathers) and short-term (blood) exposures during different periods ranging from early non-breeding (moult) to late breeding. Feathers represent mercury accumulated over the annual cycle between two successive moults. Mercury concentrations in feathers ranged over more than an order of magnitude among species, being lowest in subantarctic Grey-backed Storm-petrels (0.5 μg g −1 dw) and highest in subtropical Leach’s Storm-petrels (7.6 μg g −1 dw, i.e. posing a moderate toxicological risk). Among Antarctic Storm-petrels, Black-bellied Storm-petrels had threefold higher values than Wilson’s Storm-petrels, and in both species, birds from the South Shetlands (Antarctica) had threefold higher values than birds from Kerguelen (subantarctic Indian Ocean). Blood represents mercury taken up over several weeks, and showed similar trends, being lowest in Grey-backed Storm-petrels from Kerguelen (0.5 μg g −1 dw) and highest in Leach’s Storm-petrels (3.6 μg g −1 dw). Among Antarctic storm-petrels, species differences in the blood samples were similar to those in feathers, but site differences were less consistent. Over the breeding season, mercury decreased in blood samples of Antarctic Wilson’s Storm-petrels, but did not change in Wilson’s Storm-petrels from Kerguelen or in Antarctic Black-bellied Storm-petrels. In summary, we found that mercury concentrations in storm-petrels varied due to the distribution of species and differences in prey choice. Depending on prey choices, Antarctic storm-petrels can have similar mercury concentrations as temperate species. The lowest contamination was observed in subantarctic species and populations. The study shows how seabirds, which accumulate dietary pollutants in their tissues in the breeding and non-breeding seasons, can be used to survey marine pollution. Storm-petrels with their wide distributions and relatively low trophic levels may be especially useful, but more detailed knowledge on their prey choice and distributions is needed.