Joseph Beattie Armstrong

ABSTRACTAimFerns are globally distributed, yet the number of studies examining the historical evolution of African taxa is relatively low. Investigation of the evolution of African fern diversity is critical in order to understand patterns and processes that have global relevance (e.g., the pantropical diversity disparity [PDD] pattern). This study aims to examine when and from where a globally distributed fern lineage arrived in sub‐Saharan Africa, to obtain a better understanding of potential processes contributing to patterns of diversity across the region.LocationGlobal, sub‐Saharan Africa.TaxonAsplenium (Aspleniaceae).MethodsWe analysed five loci from 537 Asplenium taxa using a maximum likelihood (IQ‐Tree) phylogenetic framework. For age estimation, we performed penalised likelihood as implemented in treePL, and executed a Bayesian analysis using BEAST. Biogeographical analyses were carried out using BioGeoBEARS.ResultsMost dispersals into Africa occurred within the last ~55 myr, with the highest diversity of sub‐Saharan African taxa concentrated in two clades, each of which descended from an Asian ancestor. Additional dispersals to sub‐Saharan Africa can be found throughout the phylogeny. Lastly, potential cryptic species diversity exists within Asplenium as evidenced by several polyphyletic taxa.Main ConclusionsWe recover multiple dispersals of Asplenium to sub‐Saharan Africa, with two major lineages likely diversifying after arrival.

Centella asiatica is a medicinal plant recognized for its various benefits contributed by its metabolites and has been used as a food supplement since prehistorical times across various cultures. Due to the reliance on natural populations of C. asiatica and the impacts of environmental factors on its yield and centelloside production, there is a need to identify suitable cultivation areas for this species. We employed ecological niche modelling with bioclimatic and soil variables to evaluate the suitability of cultivation under current and future climatic scenarios. Our results identified suitable areas for cultivating C. asiatica worldwide, indicating its potential for global commercial cultivation. However, the niche reconstruction of highly concentrated centelloside was restricted to South and Southeast Asia due to the lack of available data. When we projected the modelled niche of centelloside in these regions, we observed a lower occurrence probability in some areas, suggesting potential challenges in cost-effectiveness. Nevertheless, our results suggest a consistent future distribution for this species when we projected the modelled niche under future climates based on various socio-economic scenarios. This study not only identifies suitable areas to develop commercial cultivation for C. asiatica with highly concentrated centelloside, but also provides supporting evidence of the consistency of these areas, which can increase its sustainability.

Parasitic weeds in the genera Orobanche, Phelipanche (broomrapes) and Striga (witchweeds) have a devastating impact on food security across much of Africa, Asia and the Mediterranean Basin. Yet, how climatic factors might affect the range expansion of these weeds in the context of global environmental change remains unexplored. We examined satellite‐based environmental variables such as surface temperature, root zone soil moisture, and elevation, in relation to parasitic weed distribution and environmental conditions over time, in combination with observational data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Our analysis reveals contrasting environmental and altitude preferences in the genera Striga and Orobanche. Asiatic witchweed (Striga asiatica), which infests corn, rice, sorghum, and sugar cane crops, appears to be expanding its range in high elevation habitats. It also shows a significant association with heat‐moisture coupling events, the frequency of which is rising in such environments. These results point to geographical shifts in distribution and abundance in parasitic weeds due to climate change.

Aim Species occurrence data are valuable information that enables one to estimate geographical distributions, characterize niches and their evolution, and guide spatial conservation planning. Rapid increases in species occurrence data stem from increasing digitization and aggregation efforts, and citizen science initiatives. However, persistent quality issues in occurrence data can impact the accuracy of scientific findings, underscoring the importance of filtering erroneous occurrence records in biodiversity analyses.InnovationWe introduce an R package, occTest, that synthesizes a growing open‐source ecosystem of biodiversity cleaning workflows to prepare occurrence data for different modelling applications. It offers a structured set of algorithms to identify potential problems with species occurrence records by employing a hierarchical organization of multiple tests. The workflow has a hierarchical structure organized in testPhases (i.e. cleaning vs. testing) that encompass different testBlocks grouping different testTypes (e.g. environmental outlier detection), which may use different testMethods (e.g. Rosner test, jacknife,etc.). Four different testBlocks characterize potential problems in geographic, environmental, human influence and temporal dimensions. Filtering and plotting functions are incorporated to facilitate the interpretation of tests. We provide examples with different data sources, with default and user‐defined parameters. Compared to other available tools and workflows, occTest offers a comprehensive suite of integrated tests, and allows multiple methods associated with each test to explore consensus among data cleaning methods. It uniquely incorporates both coordinate accuracy analysis and environmental analysis of occurrence records. Furthermore, it provides a hierarchical structure to incorporate future tests yet to be developed.Main conclusionsoccTest will help users understand the quality and quantity of data available before the start of data analysis, while also enabling users to filter data using either predefined rules or custom‐built rules. As a result, occTest can better assess each record's appropriateness for its intended application.

Myoporum is a genus of trees and shrubs native to the Northern Hemisphere that has been introduced to many parts of the world, mainly for ornamental purposes. We assessed the introduction history, distribution, and extent of naturalization/invasion for Myoporum species in South Africa.Information was collated to determine key events associated with the introduction, establishment, and naturalization of Myoporum in South Africa. Data were collated to determine the current distribution of the genus in South Africa. Twenty sites in the Western Cape were sampled to determine correlates of naturalization. Myoporum was first recorded in South Africa in 1934. Three species were confirmed to be present in South Africa: M. insulare, M. laetum and M. montanum (37 %, 25 % and 24 % of all iNaturalist records respectively). Most records are from the Western Cape (91 %) and small parts of the Eastern Cape; isolated populations occur in Gauteng and the Northern Cape. We could not confirm the presence M. petiolatum, M. tenuifolium or M. tetrandrum. Field surveys revealed widespread naturalization of M. insulare (46 % of all Research Grade observations in iNaturalist); this species was categorized code D1 in the introduction-naturalization-invasion continuum. Myoporum laetum (C3) and M. montanum (C2) are also widely naturalized but over smaller areas. Naturalized populations comprised predominantly juvenile M. insulare plants occurring in highly disturbed (transformed) habitats. Formal risk analyses for all Myoporum species in South Africa are needed as the basis for re-evaluation of their status in national legislation.

Present-day geographic and phylogenetic patterns often reflect the geological and climatic history of the planet. Neontological distribution data are often sufficient to unravel a lineage’s biogeographic history, yet ancestral range inferences can be at odds with fossil evidence. Here, I use the fossilized birth–death process and the dispersal–extinction cladogenesis model to jointly infer the dated phylogeny and range evolution of the tree fern order Cyatheales. I use data for 101 fossil and 442 extant tree ferns to reconstruct the biogeographic history of the group over the last 220 million years. Fossil-aware reconstructions evince a prolonged occupancy of Laurasia over the Triassic–Cretaceous by Cyathealean tree ferns, which is evident in the fossil record but hidden from analyses relying on neontological data alone. Nonetheless, fossil-aware reconstructions are affected by uncertainty in fossils’ phylogenetic placement, taphonomic biases, and specimen sampling and are sensitive to interpretation of paleodistributions and how these are scored. The present results highlight the need and challenges of incorporating fossils into joint inferences of phylogeny and biogeography to improve the reliability of ancestral geographic range estimation.

Aim Species severely under‐represented in fossil pollen records leave gaps in interpretations and reconstructions of past vegetation. These ‘silent taxa’ leave little or no trace due to low pollen production, dispersal, preservation and taxonomic resolution. An approach for including them is through associating them with other species with reliable pollen representation. Here, we demonstrate a method for selecting such a proxy species for the Holocene using modern vegetation data.LocationNew Zealand.TaxonBeilschmiedia tawa (A.Cunn.) Benth. & Hook. F. ex Kirk (Lauraceae).MethodsWe used vegetation plot data to perform a pairwise co‐occurrence analysis of the New Zealand indigenous forest metacommunity to identify species with a strong positive association with Beilschmiedia tawa (tawa), a common tree severely under‐recorded in the pollen record. For those species, we then modelled their realised climatic niches to identify species with high niche overlap. We discuss how well those species could be interpreted from the Holocene fossil pollen record based on the representation of their pollen taxa.ResultsKnightia excelsa (rewarewa; Proteaceae) is a potential proxy for B. tawa in Holocene fossil pollen records, and other, range‐limited species may provide community‐specific proxies. We show combining resampling with sub‐sampling is a robust method for reducing the high false positive rate associated with large co‐occurrence analyses (1000+ sites) by limiting the sample size to 100 sites.Main ConclusionsWe show that the palaeoecology of silent taxa can be studied via proxy species, allowing their past distributions to be better understood. We highlight the importance of modelling many aspects of the realised niche to understand the usefulness and limitations of the silent–proxy association. Future research should focus on testing the underlying assumptions of the silent–proxy relationship so that models built on modern data can confidently be applied to palaeoecological data.

The expansion of many wetland species is a function of both clonal propagation and sexual reproduction. The production of ramets through clonal propagation enables plants to move and occupy space near parent ramets, while seeds produced by sexual reproduction enable species to disperse and colonize open or disturbed sites both near and far from parents. The balance between clonal propagation and sexual reproduction is known to vary with plant density but few studies have focused on reproductive allocation with density changes in response to global climate change. Schoenoplectus americanus is a widespread clonal wetland species in North America and a dominant species in Chesapeake Bay brackish tidal wetlands. Long-term experiments on responses of S . americanus to global change provided the opportunity to compare the two modes of propagation under different treatments. Seed production increased with increasing shoot density, supporting the hypothesis that factors causing increased clonal reproduction (e.g., higher shoot density) stimulate sexual reproduction and dispersal of genets. The increase in allocation to sexual reproduction was mainly the result of an increase in the number of ramets that flowered and not an increase in the number of seeds per reproductive shoot, or the ratio between the number of flowers produced per inflorescence and the number of flowers that developed into seeds. Seed production increased in response to increasing temperatures and decreased or did not change in response to increased CO 2 or nitrogen. Results from this comparative study demonstrate that plant responses to global change treatments affect resource allocation and can alter the ability of species to produce seeds.

Predicting the likelihood that non-native species will be introduced into new areas remains one of conservation’s greatest challenges and, consequently, it is necessary to adopt adequate management measures to mitigate the effects of future biological invasions. At present, not much information is available on the areas in which non-native aquatic plant species could establish themselves in the Iberian Peninsula. Species distribution models were used to predict the potential invasion risk of (1) non-native aquatic plant species already established in the peninsula (32 species) and (2) those with the potential to invade the peninsula (40 species). The results revealed that the Iberian Peninsula contains a number of areas capable of hosting non-native aquatic plant species. Areas under anthropogenic pressure are at the greatest risk of invasion, and the variable most related to invasion risk is temperature. The results of this work were used to create the Invasion Risk Atlas for Alien Aquatic Plants in the Iberian Peninsula, a novel online resource that provides information about the potential distribution of non-native aquatic plant species. The atlas and this article are intended to serve as reference tools for the development of public policies, management regimes, and control strategies aimed at the prevention, mitigation, and eradication of non-native aquatic plant species.

Risk analysis plays a crucial role in regulating and managing alien and invasive species but can be time-consuming and costly. Alternatively, combining invasion and impact history with species distribution models offers a cost-effective and time-efficient approach to assess invasion risk and identify species for which a comprehensive risk analysis should take precedence. We conducted such an assessment for six traded alien fern species, determining their invasion risk in countries where they are traded. Four of the species (Dicksonia antarctica, Dryopteris erythrosora, Lygodium japonicum, and Phlebodium aureum) showed limited global distributions, while Adiantum raddianum and Sphaeropteris cooperi had broader distributions. A. raddianum, however, was the only species found to pose a high invasion risk in two known trade countries – the USA and Australia – and requires a complete risk analysis to determine the appropriate regulatory responses. Dicksonia antarctica, Phlebodium aureum (for New Zealand), and Dryopteris erythrosora (for the USA) posed a medium risk of invasion due to the lack of evidence of impacts, and a complete risk analysis is thus deemed less crucial for these species in these countries. For other species, suitable environments were not predicted in the countries where they are traded, thus the risk of invasion is low, and a complete risk analysis is not required. For species in countries where suitable environments are predicted but no trade information or presence data are available, risk assessments are recommended to better determine the risk posed. Despite the relatively limited potential global distribution of the studied ferns relative to other major plant invaders (e.g., Pinus spp. and Acacia spp.), their history of invasion, documented impacts in pristine environments, and high propagule pressure from trade warrants concern, possibly necessitating legislative and regulatory measures in environmentally suitable regions.