Domingos Cardoso

AbstractPremiseThe ecological conditions that constrain plants to an environmental niche are assumed to be constant through time. While the fossil record has been used previously to test for niche conservatism of woody flowering plants, additional studies are needed in other plant groups especially since they can provide insight with paleoclimatic reconstructions, high biodiversity in modern terrestrial ecosystems, and significant contributions to agriculture.MethodsWe tested climatic niche conservatism across time by characterizing the climatic niches of living herbaceous ginger plants (Zingiberaceae) and woody dawn redwood (Metasequoia) against paleoniches reconstructed based on fossil distribution data and paleoclimatic models.ResultsDespite few fossil Zingiberaceae occurrences in the latitudinal tropics, unlike living Zingiberaceae, extinct Zingiberaceae likely experienced paratropical conditions in the higher latitudes, especially in the Cretaceous and Paleogene. The living and fossil distributions of Metasequoia largely remain in the upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The Zingiberaceae shifted from an initial subtropical climatic paleoniche in the Cretaceous, toward a temperate regime in the late Cenozoic; Metasequoia occupied a more consistent climatic niche over the same time intervals.ConclusionsBecause of the inconsistent climatic niches of Zingiberaceae over geologic time, we are less confident of using them for taxonomic‐based paleoclimatic reconstruction methods like nearest living relative, which assume a consistent climatic niche between extant and extinct relatives; we argue that the consistent climatic niche of Metasequoia is more appropriate for these reconstructions. Niche conservatism cannot be assumed between extant and extinct plants and should be tested further in groups used for paleoclimatic reconstructions.

Invasive alien plant species pose a significant global threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services, with climate playing a crucial role in their successful establishment beyond native and recognized non-native ranges. Native to North America, A. fruticosa is recognized for its invasive nature, negatively impacting local species composition in threatened ecosystems. Here, we focused on evaluating the factors driving the rapid expansion of the invasive alien species Amorpha fruticosa L. across Europe using climate envelope modeling and predicting its future climatic suitability under range of climate change scenarios. Utilizing data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we used the MaxEnt algorithm and 19 bioclimatic variables to model A. fruticosa ’s climatic suitability. The SDM, addressing uncertainty through four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), revealed a robust relationship between A. fruticosa and bioclimatic parameters, leading to observable range shifts in response to climate change. Climatic suitability was found to be minimal below −10 °C, increasing above 0 °C. Precipitation of the driest quarter was identified as a significant predictor, with low climatic suitability below 70 mm. Projected climatic niche expansion for the period 2041–2060 ranged from 75.9% (SSP126) to 115.5% of the current climatically suitable area (SSP485). For 2061–2080, the expansion varied from 78.6 to 150.5%, respectively. The study identified an eastward and northward expansion of climatic suitability across Europe. While SDMs proved invaluable in discerning potential risks during the early stages of invasion, the study emphasizes the need for more data to understand A. fruticosa ’s interactions with local species communities, fostering data-driven decision-making.

Premise Cleomaceae is an important model clade for studies of evolutionary processes including genome evolution, floral form diversification, and photosynthetic pathway evolution. Diversification and divergence patterns in Cleomaceae remain tangled as research has been restricted by its worldwide distribution, limited genetic sampling and species coverage, and a lack of definitive fossil calibration points.MethodsWe used target sequence capture and the Angiosperms353 probe set to perform a phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae. We estimated divergence times and biogeographic analyses to explore the origin and diversification of the family. Seed morphology across extant taxa was documented with multifocal image‐stacking techniques and morphological characters were extracted, analyzed, and compared to fossil records.ResultsWe recovered a well‐supported and resolved phylogenetic tree of Cleomaceae generic relationships that includes 236 (~86%) species. We identified 11 principal clades and confidently placed Cleomella as sister to the rest of the family. Our analyses suggested that Cleomaceae and Brassicaceae diverged ~56 mya, and Cleomaceae began to diversify ~53 mya in the Palearctic and Africa. Multiple transatlantic disjunct distributions were identified. Seeds were imaged from 218 (~80%) species in the family and compared to all known fossil species.ConclusionsOur results represent the most comprehensive phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae to date. We identified transatlantic disjunctions and proposed explanations for these patterns, most likely either long‐distance dispersals or contractions in latitudinal distributions caused by climate change over geological timescales. We found that seed morphology varied considerably but mostly mirrored generic relationships.

Although some studies have investigated the effect of climate change in the Caatinga biome, Brazil, its impacts on cactus species are yet to be understood entirely. We assessed if cactus species in the Caatinga biome will benefit from or be harmed by climate change in the coming decades. We modeled the distribution of Tacinga inamoena and Tacinga palmadora, two cactus species native to seasonally dry tropical forest. We evaluated these species’ range dynamics in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP2 and SSP5, for two time periods centered in 2050 and 2070. For this purpose, we used the Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees tools to model the species distribution. The results indicated a continuous and significant contraction of the species range in the face of climate changes. We estimated that 65% of the range of T. inamoena and 27% of T. palmadora would be lost in the most critical scenario, SSP5/2070. Climate variables, such as annual precipitation and maximum temperature of warmest month, mainly drove this contraction. Results showed a high overlap in potential refugia areas with the target species. Our results can help protect refugia for cacti species, especially those of the genus Tacinga, throughout the Caatinga biome.

Global biodiversity is under substantial threat due to biological invasions, a problem exacerbated by climate change. Such invasions have detrimental effects on the environment, economy, and human health, resulting in significant financial burdens. Recently, understanding these challenges has become a highlighted priority within the scientific community. This study focuses on the evaluation of Schinus terebinthifolia, native to South America, and its invasive spread into North and Central America, which has resulted in wide distribution and considerable impact. The primary objectives of this study include analyzing the potential distribution of the species under current and future climate scenarios, identifying the areas where its climatic niche is changing. Data collection encompassed a vast dataset of over 30,000 occurrence records of this species, from the following databases: (1) The Global Biodiversity Information Facility provided 22,163 records (GBIF), (2) The virtual Herbarium Reflora contributed 1,438 records, and NeoTropTree made available 6,591 records. Following a rigorous filtering process, 992 occurrences were considered for modeling. In this process, we utilized climate data and climate projections, employing various algorithms, with an emphasis on the consensus model methodology. The research results reveal a clear trend of reduced habitat suitability for S. terebinthifolia, especially under scenarios of high global warming. This accentuates the urgency of implementing emission control measures and mitigation strategies. Additionally, the study underscores the crucial importance of continuous monitoring, as well as actions for controlling and restoring affected ecosystems. The significant role played by S. terebinthifolia in both its native and invaded areas highlights the need for comprehensive management approaches. In the face of climate change and biodiversity threats, this study provides insightful observations on the dynamics of biological invasions. Success in addressing these issues relies on close cooperation between the scientific community, policymakers, land managers, and local communities. This collaboration is essential for guiding and conducting conservation and biodiversity management efforts in an ever-evolving world.

Wild food plants (WFPs) are important components of the diet and a source of income for local communities in semiarid regions, given that these populations are commonly characterized by high socioeconomic vulnerability and dependence on natural resources for subsistence. In periods of food scarcity and crop failure, WFPs emerge as strategic resources for ensuring food and nutrition security. However, these little-researched plants may also be affected by climate change. Here, our objective was to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of WFPs in the Brazilian semiarid and evaluate their potential availability in future climate change scenarios. We constructed habitat suitability models for economically and nutritionally important WFPs used in this region and projected future scenarios (2041–2060). Furthermore, we determined the geographical distribution, species richness, and composition (on local and regional scales) of WFPs in current and future scenarios. Our results showed that WFPs exhibited varied responses to climate change. The more pessimistic the future scenario, the greater the negative effects. Most WFP species exhibited a reduction in climatically suitable areas in future scenarios, resulting in a shrinkage of geographical ranges, a reduction in species richness, and alterations in community composition. These changes could have important implications for economic development, subsistence, and food and nutrition security in the region. Our findings offer insights that can guide actions for adaptation and mitigating the effects of climate change and promoting species conservation not only in the Brazilian semiarid but also in other semiarid regions worldwide.

Species occurrence-based climate niche models (CNMs) serve as valuable tools for predicting the future ranges of species’ suitable habitats, aiding the development of climate change adaptation strategies. However, these models do not address an essential aspect - productivity, which holds economic significance for timber production and ecological importance for carbon sequestration and ecosystem services. In this study, we investigated the potential to extend the CNMs to predict species productivity under various climate conditions. Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco.) were selected as our model species due to their comprehensive range-wide occurrence data and measurement of site productivity. To achieve this, we compared and optimized the performance of four individual modeling algorithms (Random Forest (RF), Maxent, Generalized Boosted Models (GBM), and Generalized Additive Model (GAM)) in reflecting site productivity by evaluating the effect of spatial filtering, and the ratio of presence to absence (p/a ratio) observations. Additionally, we applied a binning process to capture the overarching trend of climatic effects while minimizing the impact of other factors. We observed consistency in optimal performance across both species when using the unfiltered data and a 1:1.5 p/a ratio, which could potentially be extended to other species. Among the modeling algorithms explored, we selected the ensemble model combining RF and Maxent as the final model to predict the range-wide site productivity for both species. The predicted range-wide site productivity was validated with an independent dataset for each species and yielded promising results (R2 above 0.7), affirming our model’s credibility. Our model introduced an innovative approach for predicting species productivity with high accuracy using only species occurrence data, and significantly advanced the application of CNMs. It provided crucial tools and insights for evaluating climate change's impact on productivity and holds a better potential for informed forest management and conservation decisions.

Cerrado is a large and heterogeneous ecoregion in the Neotropics marked by the fire‐prone savanna vegetation, to which succulent lineages are usually not associated due to this adverse condition. However, recent studies have highlighted the importance of Cerrado as an ancestral range for the origin, dispersal and in situ diversification of remarkable lineages of South American cacti. In this perspective, we explore the implications of these occurrences in the Cerrado, shedding light on a frequently overlooked aspect of this ecoregion—the role of scattered rocky outcrop habitats acting as micro‐refuges for fire‐sensitive lineages. We show that most cacti occurrences are associated with patches of rock outcrops across the Cerrado. In contrast, when terricolous, a few disparate and not closely related species can develop underground structures or present a specialized habit that facilitates their presence as a putative response to fire—reinforcing the evolutionary lability of fire adaptation in Cerrado lineages. Despite some notable endemisms, several occurrences are from species with core distributions in adjacent ecoregions (e.g. Caatinga and Chaco), demonstrating the permeability of Cerrado, which can act concomitantly as a biogeographical barrier (especially due to its fire‐prone habitats) and as a corridor for biota interchange. Finally, we stress that Cerrado heterogeneity, often leading to different circumscriptions, is a relevant issue when studying and characterizing Neotropical biota, which must be further explored and considered to assess the evolutionary assembly of the biomes involved.

Aim To test the hypothesis that adaptive shifts leading to the assembly of tropical savannas involved coordination between bark and wood traits and to understand the underlying mechanisms.LocationTropical South America.TaxonAngiosperms (woody).MethodsWe compiled data on three bark traits (total, inner and outer relative bark thickness), wood density, maximum height, five secondary xylem traits and on species' habitat information (light environment, climate, soil and fire history) for Neotropical savanna, forest and generalist species (biome groups). We tested for pairwise and multivariate associations among traits across species and if biome group and habitat conditions explained species positions along the resulting strategy axes.ResultsTraits covaried along four different axes. The first axis was consistent with a trade‐off between fire (thick barks) and shade tolerance (low bark to diameter ratio, high vessel density) and contributed to differentiate the three biome groups according to the preference for shaded environments. Forest species also differed from savanna and generalist species in a separate axis by being more resource acquisitive. Maximum height and wood density did not strongly trade‐off with bark thickness, although maximum height was negatively covaried with relative outer bark thickness. Preference for shaded conditions was the main driver of variation in the two principal strategy axes, but temperature, fire and soil sand content also explained differences in plant stature between savanna and generalist species.Main ConclusionsAllocation to bark is constrained by trade‐offs with wood, opposing shade‐tolerant and acquisitive forest species to fire‐resistant and conservative savanna species. Rather than a single strategy axis, three axes are necessary to understand the functional differences among savanna, forest and generalist species. Because two of these axes are controlled by light availability, the associated traits tend to covary in space and time, but not across species.

Grasses are one of the most successful and dispersed plant families worldwide and their environmental and economic values are widely acknowledged. They dominate the landscape of Cabo Verde, the southernmost and driest archipelago of Macaronesia, and are relevant natural resources for local populations, but a comprehensive evaluation of their distribution patterns is still lacking. In this study, we aim to evaluate the potential effects of climate change using the long‐term data concerning grass distribution in Cabo Verde and the widely recognized climatic variability of this archipelago, which entails a huge irregularity in spatial and temporal rainfall. We identified two contrasting climatic periods (wet, from 1929 to 1968, and dry, from 1969 to 2007) and gathered all the information available from the bibliography, herbaria, and fieldwork concerning spontaneous grass species recorded in Cabo Verde during those two periods, which amounted to 107 taxa. This information was then used to disclose the patterns of grass diversity as related to climatic and topographic variables (altitude and windward vs. leeward aspects). Different altitudinal shifts in the distribution patterns of grass species assemblages and an assemblage specific to the wet period were revealed by comparing the two climatic periods. The role of exposure in delimiting the altitudinal distribution of the various assemblages was highlighted; the trade winds clearly determine the distribution of grass assemblages. We detected shifts in the distribution of grass assemblages according to the climatic periods (related to the macroclimate) and local topographic factors (associated with mesoclimates). Also, functional traits (i.e., annuals vs. perennials, C3 vs. C4 grasses, and tropical vs. temperate species) were found to vary between wet and dry periods, as well as with altitude and with slope aspect. Understanding species distributions and the role of the climatic variability of Cabo Verde is crucial to predicting how climate change will affect them and thus to support effective management and conservation actions.